March 5th, 2022

Good morning it’s Day 10 of the war. You’ll notice some of my posts have the wrong day. Apparently, it’s hard to remember how many days ago the war started.

Anyway, the big news of the day seems to be a Cease fire in the towns of Mariupol and Volnovakha. This went into effect at 10:00 am Moscow time. The purpose of this is to allow the evacuation of all civilians in these cities. Both these cities have been encircled and are sustaining heavy fighting. The most likely route of evacuation would be into the DPR region. In the south-west Russian forces lost control the Kulbakino Airfield outside of Myolaiv, however recent reports have them out flanking the city and racing northwards towards Voznesensk. Near Kiev it appeared Russian forces had been encircled yesterday, however by the evening they had seemingly managed to break out and push further west and south continuing Russia’s attempt to encircle the capital. And yet another battle around Hostomel airport has led to Russia having no control over it. This airport would drastically simplify Russia’s logistical problems particularly as the Rasputitsa (Mud season) approaches. Already vehicles getting stuck in mud is a problem for Russia. Being able to fly in supplies would allow them to limit the road and rail convoys coming in from Belarus. Although yes this also requires Ukrainian Air Defense to be neutralized and Air Superiority to be gained. On the other side of the Dnieper Chernigov still stands holding up Russian forces and bottle necking supply going south. However, the Russian advances via Konotop and Rummy has pushed Russian thunder runs now within 50 miles of Kiev. With little change around Kharkiv and Sumy this was a day of gains for Russia using Thunder Runs but the pressure they place is easily overstated.

Quickly an understanding on Battalion Tactical Groups or BTG’s’. Born out of combined arms theory from WW2 the concept is rather than having ‘pure’ infantry or armor battalions to have them mixed at the battalion level with rocket artillery and other ‘support groups’ more often seen at Brigade or Divisional level. Now Russia has been conducting primarily Thunder Runs, or charging headlong down the road to your objective, to advance. They’ve spent little time securing the open fields as seen by how easily their lines have been permeated and assaulted from the rear (Ivankiv is a prime example). In order to secure important junctions and infrastructure BTG’s leave a small force of men to guard it. This has led to Russian forces having a considerably smaller effective combat strength when they finally meet Ukrainian defenders likely leading to many of the burnt-out tanks as limited infantry cover allows AT operator’s great freedom of movement. It also creates weaker supply lines as Militia, National Guard, over run military, and SOF can easily strike the easier supply trucks. However, because Russian forces are as far west as Boryspil from Rummy most maps auto-fil that land red for Russia. This gives the impression of Russia having taken great swathes of land when they’ve likely just hold onto the road.

Now for Ukraine, a successful ambush at Hostomel two days ago of the VDV and armor movements west of Kiev have stunted Russian advances around the city. However elsewhere the military has been cut off and are attempting to hold for as long as they can. Hostomel, Sumy, Mariupol and Chernigov are the best example. These staunch defenses have tied up Russians and are playing havoc on Russian logistics as all these cities represent important logistical hubs. Around Kharkiv multiple attempted flanking’s have been stopped. Keeping vital supply and refugee lines open. And fighting continues outside of Kherson even as Russian troops push north. Retaking the city would be a major moral boost and cut off Russian advances’ west of the Dnieper in the south. The air war seems to swing towards Ukraine with Russia moving flight-ops to the night only.