March 6th, 2022

Good morning, everyone it’s the 11th day of the war and the sun is rising over Kiev. The past 24 hours have been big for both Russia and Ukraine.

On August 18, 1940, the Luftwaffe suffered about 70 aircraft shot down in the deadliest day of the Battle of Britain. The past 36 hours may have just been that for the VVS (Russian Air Force). With 7 aircraft losses (2xSU-25SM, 2xSU-34, 2xMi-24/35, 1xSU-30SM). Already Russia announced the move to primarily night ops for their air force, but this shows how solid the Ukrainian command of the air is. With Russia continuously failing to gain strong air superiority let alone air supremacy it has opened the way for Ukraine to use its Ground Attack aircraft and their famed TB-2 drones. We’ve already seen the damage they’ve cause Russian logistical lines. But unless Russia can pull back the Air War, Ukraine will be able to continue hitting the Russian positions with near impunity. The air war dominates the battlefield. There was limited Russian advances again today, continuing a pattern of stunted movement where Russia will advance quickly until reaching resistance then stall for a few days while logistics catch up. This is something Russia continues to falter with and further advances inside Ukraine only make this work. However, it seems Russia is starting to consolidate south of Kharkiv having bridged the front between Luhansk and Kharkiv and threatened to encircle Sievierodonetsk. To the south Russia is securing it’s position on the South bank of the Dnieper river. This position, in tandem with the push past Kherson can threaten the main artery of Ukrainian defense the Dnieper River. It also threatens any supply from Kiev or Lviv reaching strongholds like Kharkiv or the contact line. How soon Russia can exploit this could determine the fate of the war.

 Today Ukraine made its most successful counterattack. Pushing the 488th Motor Rifle regiment from Kharkov north back to the Russian boarder destroying it in the process. While it’s unlikely Ukraine will maintain this position it shows how vulnerable the Russian position is. While Russian positions north of Kiev seem well fortified, elsewhere it is likely that Ukraine could mount similar counter attacks. For both morale and enemy destruction these attacks could prove vital to Ukraine defeating the Russian Army in the field. And while it’s unlikely it would lead to Ukraine marching on Kursk or Rostov it could foreshadow the reclaiming of Crimea. Today will likely see Russian pushes north of Mykolaiv as the look to cut off the city before taking it. The resumption of fighting in Mariupol after the cease fire today And Russian advances west of Kiev. It is likely the city will be cut off within the coming days. And when that happens, we shall see if Kiev will stand strong or fall. Will we see the worst urban fighting since Stalingrad? Or will it be another siege like Grozny.

Russia will also reinforce its positions east of Kiev and the supply lines before Ukraine manages to cut them. For Ukraine the counterattack may very well signal more such counter attacks as Ukraine capitalize on low morale and low supply of many Russian BTG’s. Leaked FSB documents show that there is a real fear of Russian units being cut off and dying in Ukraine, something that looks truly palatable not. During the Winter War Motti was the Finish response to Soviet attacks. Finnish troops would outmanoeuvre Soviets stuck on a road cutting logistics and separating the units. Lack of supply and Finnish attacks would cause death or surrender. The same may happen here.

Quickly on the Cease Fire. Russia announced a ceasefire for the evacuation of civilians from Mariupol. During the ceasefire both sides accused the other of breaking it or halting the evacuation. As best as I can tell Russian artillery near the evac routes led to Ukraine telling civilians to not evacuate. However, paramilitaries may have also contributed by blocking access or opening fire. Only time will tell.