March 7th, 2022

Bit of a late one today but Day 12 has started in Ukraine and well with recent Ukrainian counterattacks and Russian advances this promises to be interesting.

Yesterday Russia renewed its offences north-west of Kiev retaking Iprim for I believe the third or fourth time. Meanwhile the push to encircle Kiev continues. With forces outside of Boryspil attempting to swing south and reach the Dnieper. Near Kharkiv Russia has reportedly enveloped Okhtyka possibly opening the north flank of the Kharkiv defense. And setting Russia down the road towards Poltava. In Kharkiv itself we saw another day of heavy bombardment with the death toll reportedly rising to 209 including 133 civilians and 5 children according to Ukrainian officials. However, Russia seems to have made little progress in capturing the city. In the south Russia had another series of victories recapturing the Mykolaiv airport, continuing their advance north along the H-14 capturing Kashpero-Mykolaivka. They also advanced on a wide front towards Zaporizhai. This advance threatens to encircle much of the Ukrainian forces on the contact line south of Donetsk. Also, in the south Russia has rebuilt rail Bridges over the Dnieper and apparently can now use trains to supply the front north of Kherson. A massive success for Russian logistics who are so reliant on trains in general.

 For Ukraine there were also several successes yesterday. With the town of Chuhuiv (southeast of Kharkiv) being reported cleared of Russians. This weakens Russia’s southern flank for this region and will undoubtedly free up Ukrainian troops to deal with the much more pressing northern flank. To the south after the cease fire fell through Ukraine announced a counterattack was underway to relieve Mariupol. Its success is unknown, but it is doubtful they’ve achieved much. And in Kiev as Russia advanced the Ukrainian 4th rapid response brigade, 112th territorial defense brigade and militia put up a strong defense. Halting them just south of Iprin. Near Kherson there is video of a large explosion from the newly Russian airfield with reports the Ukrainian units left to conduct irregular warfare attacked the base a destroyed a large number of aircraft. This report is as of my writing this unconfirmed but does do a good job of illustrating how effective irregular warfare has been for Ukraine. The large convoy to the north of Kiev reportedly just reached the front with almost every fuel truck reported somehow destroyed along the way. We have seen more and more photos of Russian convoys using wood and other materials to protect the engine in case of it being molotoved. And more and more footage from Russia show’s Russia moving or already using civilian trucks for logistical supply. We have also begun to see more Ukrainian Artillery annihilate Russian positions combined with the logistics attacks this is what will cause the Russian front to crumble in a counterattack.

 In the coming days expect renewed attacks by Russia on Kiev. The crown jewel for Russia, Kyiv, will continue to be their priority. Although with better supply in the south we should also expect Russia to pull of more maneuverer warfare, and seen as the commanders down there aren’t trying to rush Kyiv they will likely be more successful in advancing. Expect Zaporizhai to also come under attack as Russia begins to push along the Dnieper. Russia will also likely be making renewed assaults on Kharkiv and its flanks as they attempt to capture the logistical hub that would open up Eastern Ukraine. We can also expect increased fighting in the Luhansk region as Russia and separatist forces secure the front between Luhansk and Kiev. Ukrainian strongholds Mariupol, Chernigov, Sumy, and Mykolaiv will continue to be assaulted although with rear units as Russia strengthens its positions around Kiev. Ukraine meanwhile will likely continue to counterattack near Kiev with units they’ve left in Lviv, as well as in the Sumy and Kharkiv region. However, they’ll most likely wait until after Russia’s current attacks.