February 26th, 2022

As dawn breaks over Ukraine, we look to the fourth day of fighting. Over the night Russian advances on Kiev were stopped and, in some cases, repelled. That was where most of the fighting took place. There is also confirmed two Il-76’s shot down believed full of VDV forces. Continuing a high casualty toll for the VDV. Also, BMD’s the VDV Armored Car is a currently irreplaceable vehicles that would also be lost potentially in downed cargo aircraft. (BMD assembly lines are in Kazakhstan.) Day 4 of the War and Russian advances seemingly have fallen flat, with the northern advance from Pripyat and Ivankiv being the only successful push. And street fighting in in the suburbs of Kiev continue. Russia will likely look to strengthen the rear and increase supply lines along this axis as the current combat is likely burning through most of the munitions at the front. Yesterday I talked about the Russian advance north of Sumy, it appears it has not yet reached the Kiev-Chernihiv highway (E-95) although Russia has claimed they’ve cut off the city with reports of combat south of the city. Russia may be looking to simply tie up troops here, although it’s capture would be a major victory for Russia and pressure both Kiev and the read of Sumy/Kharkiv defensive positions. Speaking of which the battle for both those cities remains among the fiercest so far, with Kharkiv beginning to resemble Grozny. Kharkiv will defiantly be an objective as its infrastructure network connect Russia with Eastern Ukraine. On the contact line there has still only been sporadic fighting with only Mariupol being the scene of a breakout. Russia has made considerable attacks on the city since the start of the war and will near certainty continue to do so. West in Crimea Kherson has fallen back to Ukraine and Russia will look to dig in to prevent Ukraine cutting off Crimea from the Russian group attacking Melitopol. Meanwhile the Russian navy will continue to fake possible invasions, although you will likely also begin to see more small amphibious landings using both boats and helicopters. Cutting off Odessa would also cut of the numerous brigades still in the Oblast. For Ukraine today we will likely see defensive actions on all fronts, however there is some room for counter attacks. The most likely being in Kherson. However, the west flank of Russia’s thrust to Kiev from Pripyat does appear to be open or weakly defended. Attacking her could cut off the Kiev assault from land forcing Russia to rely on Air supply which can be shot down. It will also give Kiev breathing room. In the air we will see more dogfighting as Russia tries to gain a more dominant air superiority. As well as the targeting of RADAR and SAM sites.