February 27th, 2022

As I’m writing this it’s 9am in Kiev.

The start of Day six has begun. Let’s get into the daily briefing. Over the weekend the Russian attacks have gained new momentum primarily in the Northeast and Southeast, with a Russian Spearhead passing Rommy (west of Sumy) and reportedly reaching as far as Pryluky. This advance is not from Sumy but from Russian positions north coming out of Konotop. Also, from here Russia has reached Nizhyn. These advances threaten most of Eastern and Ukrainian Supply, however their beeline for Kiev shows desperation rather than strategy. In the south the cities of Melitopol and Berdyansk have fallen to a Russian offensive aimed at a land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas. However, continued stiff resistance on the contact line have stopped the opposite thrust from meeting up. To the west Russian forces were stopped in Mykolaiv, and have since been reported destroyed, with Kherson back in Ukrainian hands. Now the only crossing of the Dnieper in Ukraine held by Russia is in Kakhovka. In the cities of Sumy and Kharkov Ukrainian counter attacks have retaken the cities and bolstered Ukrainian morale. And in the north logistical problems continue to hamper the Russian offensive with a reportedly 2.5 km convoy making its way south. This is where we stand right now. Going forward Kiev and Kharkov seem to be the main objectives for the Russians with a rumoured leak of Russian MOD emails ordering the cities capture by 10am today regardless of casualties. However, judging by the lack of gunfire in Kiev that is not happening. In the south the creation of a land bridge remains the most likely priority, although an assault on Zapoizhzia can be expected. From the contact line we can expect further assaults on Mariupol and Volnovakha. I also expect the continuing rocketing, bombing, and shelling of major cities with the priority for those under or soon to be under attack. It’s worth noting that major cities even in the east like Poltava have yet to see sustained bombardments. I would also like to take a moment to note that by now Russia will have spent most of its munitions capable of precision attacks. So inevitably more civilian locations will be hit.

 For Ukraine their offensive operations in the east have proven successful, and we can likely expect more offensive actions in the coming days. TB-2 and other ground attack aircraft have been seen targeting columns of Russian equipment further worsening the Russian supply situation. Ukraine will likely seek to exploit this with follow up ground assaults. Ivankiv remains the most likely location for an assualt as that would cut off the Russian Army positions to the south outside of Kiev. Other likely locations for a counterattack are Rommy/Konotop, South of Kherson near Kalanchak, Nova Kakhovka, Melitipol and Chernigov. However, don’t expect any major counter attacks until this evening most likely. Nor should you expect full counter attacks, Ukraine has considerably better defensive capabilities than attack. The war is still not decided, Ukraine for all their vigour and effort have allowed breakthroughs to happen, while Russia still has a large amount of its forces capable of being deployed. Also expect to see peace talks in the coming days. While exact confirmation has yet to be seen, there has been an increase in talking about them. Russia and Ukraine still battle for Air Supremacy although Russia has ruled the waves since day 1. Increase of foreign military aid will be of great help however Russia has announced they will be targeting convoys entering Ukraine. This will likely cause the shipments to be more dispersed.  

In market news MOEX has been delayed opening, but futures are down for all Russian major stock and the Ruble in now worth 0.0092 USD. This is expected to be the worst day yet for the Russian economy after SWIFT removal was announced over the weekend.