February 28th, 2022

Good morning it’s 7:17AM in Kiev as I write this. (I am in New York) and we start the 6th day of combat.

Yesterday we saw relatively mild combat across Ukraine as Peace talks entered their first day. More notably we saw the MOEX close yesterday and now today, the Rubble fell off another cliff getting to as low as 0.0090 RUB/USD (0.0082 RUB/EUR). Russian stocks worldwide also tanked with the NYSE halting all trading of Russian stocks yesterday. This came as Russian and Chinese companies announced new trade deals and Russia entering the Chinese SWIFT, CIPS. Already showing the weak point in Western Sanctions.

Yesterday also brought announcement of Belarussian troops preparing to fight in Ukraine and Lukashenko announcing they will be conducting operations against Ukraine. We saw the 38th Air Assault Brigade (BY) moving south of Brest suggesting an attack towards Lutsk and Lviv to cut off shipments from Poland. Also, yesterday we saw Russia’s Wagner Group arrive in Kharkov. This suggests further escalation from Russia.

Aside from that Yesterday brought further bombings, rocket, and artillery attacks with multiple thermobaric rockets used. Going into today there is already reports of a Russian counteroffensive over the Dnieper River in Kherson with Russian troops spotted in the western outskirts of Kherson. As well as a repelled attack in Irpin. This suggests that today we will see more Russian offenses around the country. The Usual suspects of Kharkov, Sumy, Mariupol, Kiev, and Chernigov naturally are the primary locations where we will most likely see fighting. However, Zaphorizhzhia and Nizhyn are new targets for Russia on their push towards Kiev. Although the threat of a southern thrust from Rommy is still prevalent and could potentially be disastrous for Ukraine. We should also not be surprised if Belorussian soldiers open up an additional front in the West pushing towards Lviv. Russia has made it clear it does not want further weapons shipments to Ukraine and with most of them arriving via Poland cutting the logistical hub of Lviv off from the rest of Ukraine would be an excellent move. Also likely are more air assaults either via helicopter or parachute. With footage from Belarus yesterday apparently showing large cargo aircraft moving about. Moscow is undoubtedly feeling the pressure of the international community’s reaction which is stronger than anyone expected. And with current Russian military strategy being get Kiev worry about the rest latter, one can be mistaken to assume Russia will continue this strategy just with more urgency. I’d also like to point out that Russia may also change their plan of attack and begin focusing on smaller objectives like the land bridge, Sumy, Khakov, Luhansk, Chernigov. And build an attack from there.

For Ukraine today will be another testament to defence. With foreign aid on the way and more foreign volunteers flying to Ukraine the hardest part of the defence appears to be coming to an end. Additionally with reserves and Territorial defence units being formed the pressure felt by those on the front since day 1 can begin to be relieved. The big question then is do they still have enough AT weapons. And more importantly are they where they need to be. So far there has been little proof that Ukrainian logistics is suffering the same fate as Russia but that doesn’t mean Russia isn’t targeting it. The likely hood of a Ukrainian counterattack is rather low today. With Russian supply lines near Rommy and Konotop being the obvious choice. However, Ukraine has proven that they don’t need to cut supply lines to choke Russian supply with TB-2’s and Ukrainian forces behind Russian lines being seen hitting supply lines most notably in the North near Ivankiv. On that note it should also be pointed out that most maps showing Russian controlled territory are generous. Russia no doubt controls the roads, yet the surrounding countryside is seemingly full of Ukrainian fighters. Until tomorrow have a good day.