Good Morning all the war is on it’s 14th day And yesterday we say the start of Russia’s next offensive. Yesterday I noted that it looks like Russia was starting a new offensive on Sumy and Kharkiv. I was wrong. This was a general offense on all fronts. We’ll start with Kharkiv. Lacking sufficient control of the country side, Russia was left with only a few avenue of advances into Kharkiv, avenues Ukraine had fortified and were ready in waiting. Russian forces immediately were faced with Ukrainian armour and infantry. And urban fighting broke out in the early hours yesterday lasting most of the day. The fighting here has been arguably the worst of the war with a wide variety of Russian forces attack including the famed Alpha group. I’ve commented multiple times on how important the defence of this city is. The logistical and infrastructure network based around this city spreads out to every major city east of the Dnieper river. The rail yard would allow Russia to shorten truck borne logistics by 70 km freeing up trucks that are in short supply for Russia. The highways lead from Kharkiv straight to other major cities Poltava, Dnipro, Kramatorsk (admittedly that highway has been contest for a the better part of the invasion.) And Kharkiv’s airport boasts a 7,285 foot long runway, making it capable of landing any aircraft in the Russian Air Force. (Although the runway is to short for an An-124 to take off at MTOW). For Russia Kiev may be the main objective, but Kharkiv is a close second. Aside from Kharkiv, Russia launched more offenses pushing south of Kiev to continue encircling the west of the city. Russian forces reached the P-04 highway which connects Kiev to Fastiv. This leaves Kiev with the M-05 and H-01 on the west bank of the Dnieper to bring supplies in. Near Iprim and Hostomel though advances were immediately bogged down by Ukrainian defences. On the east side Russian forces were unable to advance far, likely due to limited supplies. Though their objective hear appears to be connecting with Russian forces south of Chernigov and advancing of Boryspil. This would improve their supply situation while hampering Ukrainian logistics between Kiev and Kharkiv. Other Russian advances in the south began the process of encircling Mykolaiv and advancing on Kryvyi Rih. However judging by the reported positions Russia is starting to lack the forces need to make large advances here. With positions only as far as 40 km north of Mykolaiv. Further fighting also happened south of Zaporizhzhia as Russia looks to cut off Ukrainian troops attempting to relieve Mariupol and join up with forces from Donetsk. Finally the Russian assault on Sumy appears to have been stopped by Ukrainian troops conducting an ambush outside of the city. With footage of a captured Russian tank that’s claimed to be the parade tank appearing on twitter. Russia’s failure to clean up these pockets is likely down to the troops being used being reserve troops. Germany had similar problems in WWII. Notably at Torbuk and Bastogne where the troops tasked to take the cities were insufficiently supplied for urban fighting and being seen as a lower priority to the advance of the army. Ukraine’s defence today against such a large offense is probably their best of the war with no major breakthroughs and most advances stalling immediately. Footage from Kharkiv showed Ukrainians using Tigir vehicles for cover. Those vehicles were destroyed during a previous assault on the city. Showing how little progress Russia is making. Ukraine also secure Pryluky and most of the villages around the city. This cuts one of Russia’s supply lines forcing Russia to use alternate roads more frequently making ambushes there more predicable. North of Kiev flooded fields and blown bridges have also lead to a similar situation. if you know where the enemy will be you can attack them a lot easier. Either with air strikes of NLAWs. The coming days of the offensive are crucial. With Russian logistics stabilizing as more trains are used and roads taken, Ukraine will lose the advantage they have cutting Russian supply lines. And judging by Russian advances in the south the goal no longer seems to be rush Kiev. As smaller objectives are prioritised. This change in plan makes it harder for Ukraine to properly defend as it will be harder to determine where Russia will attack. And they can’t just stop Russian advances in the cities as Russia more and more is willing to just circumvent the cities and take the roads and villages. It is easy to mistake the Russian army as ineffective, poor, and weak. After all a lot of the Russian assaults are creating embarrassing losses for Russia. But early defeats don’t determine the outcome. On New Years Eve in 1994 Russia began an assault of the city Grozny. Attacking along three advances with overwhelming air supremacy. The attack seemed to be more of a victory procession. Russian casualty reports claim Russia lost 1,376. Chechnya claimed Russia lost 4000 men on the first day alone. But the 2nd a high ranking officer in the Russian general staff said they had lost contact with all forward units. With losses of 105 out of 120 Russian tanks and APC’s involved. It was a humiliating failure for Russia. Yet 5 years later Russia would succeed in taking Grozny. My point is that Russia is still capable of winning the war. Chechnya might have lead to Yeltstin leaving office, but it was also what cemented Putin as the leader of Russia