Good morning it is the 15th day of the war And the morning sun is shinning down on Ukraine. For those who may not know this, one of my main objectives is to be objective. There is a variety of reasons for this, primarily I feel that being objective allows me to give a clearer picture on the war. I can point out where the Russian military has place to succeed and where the Ukrainian military could do better. Or at least that to the best my knowledge. That being said I do feel it necessary to take a stand on something. Yesterday roughly 4:42pm local time reports started coming out of Mariupol of another bombing. However this bombing seemed to target the children’s hospital. Now to give Russia the benefit of the doubt this may have been a mistake. Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia’s first deputy permanent representative to the United Nations said that it had been taken over by soldiers and was no longer a hospital. The validity of this claim however is rather weak. And if this was true then I feel like there would have been footage of a number of soldiers in the immediate aftermath. I saw at most a handful, certainly not enough to warrant a bombing campaign. What we do know is the bombing dealt significant damage to the Children’s hospital. Thankfully it looks as no one was killed, this time. But this is also not the first time Russia has hit, either by malice or mistake hospitals. The targeting of hospitals, ambulances, and other health facilities, especially civilian ones, has long been a hallmark in the Geneva Convention. The First Geneva Convention states there shall be no “obstacle to the humanitarian activities”.(1864) And Article 19 of the Forth Geneva Convention States “Fixed establishments and mobile medical units of the Medical Service may in no circumstances be attacked, but shall at all times be respected and protected by the Parties to the conflict.”(1949) Russia is party to both of these conventions. These are legitimate war crimes. Now to actual combat: Russian units east of Kiev have advanced to Brovary north east of Kiev. This definitively cuts the highway between Kiev and Chernigov and puts Russia within 20 km of the city proper. This also means that if it hasn’t already been achieved, Russian forces have joined up between Kiev and Chernigov. This will help secure the supply lines for Russian forces on the east side of Kiev. Near Kharkov Russian forces have been spotted as far ahead as Myrhorod likely attacking from the north. The only other substantial movement by Russia is Russia’s slow encircling of Mykolaiv. But ultimately it seems the Russia can only sustain 2 days of attacks before stalling even on fronts with the most movement such as in the south or east of Kiev. Ukraine has mounted defensive operations in Brovary and Mykolaiv. As well as rumoured counter attack along the P-04 west of Kiev. And once again we are able to track Russian advances by the smoke from destroyed Russian tanks. Ultimately yesterday was a quieter day. But it also seems to mark the end of this “cease fire” around encircled Ukrainian cities. This will lead to further bombardment of these cities. But how successful attacks on them will be is uncertain. Undoubtly Ukraine can not expect to hold them indefinitely. But they seemed determined to make sure Russia bleeds for them. With Kiev nearly fully encircled we will also no see Russia’s plan to take the city. I expect a Siege like Sarajevo or Grozny. However Kiev is massive and lacks the mountains the other two had. In WWII Leningrad had 45 days of supplies when Germany began the siege. Two years later the city remained standing. Right now Kiev has 10-14 days worth of supplies. But Air drops are considerably easier now, and we have already seen the Ukrainians will to fight. So I expect Kiev to not fall to to hunger. And that means Russian forces will have to embark on any militaries worst nightmare. And will they be able to fight of the impending counter attack? The next act of the war is about to start.