Good morning it is Day 19 and I’ve got a bit of a recap. For the first time since the war started I feel I should start with Ukraine. Their counter attack is under way. Or at the very least from where I sit it looks that way. In Kyiv’s eastern suburbs initial Russian gains near Brovary Russian forces had been repulsed and Ukraine has mounted multiple infantry assaults. In the north Ukrainian forces have begun pushes towards Chernobyl the extent of these is unknown but some suggest they’ve made it most the way to Prypriat. And the Siege of Mariupol has been weakening over recent days, with multiple reports of important towns and villages to the north, with Ukraine reporting capturing the town of Volnovkha. While it appears there is still a Russian presence around the City, the northern flank is incredibly thin. Ukraine’s tactics of destroying logistics and command structures of Russia has softened the Russian army considerably. While Ukraine may boost more people fighting, they are in a deficit in armour and armoured vehicles. This morning Ukraine Interior Ministry announced two counter attack. One near Mykolaiv, and another near Kharkiv. The success of these is not yet known. And while some reports are suggesting Russia has already lost dozens of vehicles from these, remember Russia reported similar gains hours into their initial offensive. It’s best to sit back and wait for credible sources and OSINT to analyse. The Mykolaiv offensive is important for Ukraine because this will allow Ukraine to push Russia back to the Dnieper, possibly over it. We know Russia’s hold on Kherson is fragile, and most of the Russian forces are pushing north towards Kryvyi Rih. This could lead to Russia being ‘cut off’ although the size of the force means they could run havoc for weeks and likely find alternate crossing points. Kharkiv however is a riskier location. Russia isn’t strung out in this area but rather compact. Ukraine could successfully push some portion of the Russian army there, but it would be harder to hold and risks being defeated by a pincer move. Especially if they attempt to push into Russia. That being said, counter attack and retreats could cause a “killing field” as Russian forces suffer losses regaining the ground just to be counter attacked by fresh Ukrainian forces. And as long as Russia isn’t attacking Kharkiv this could be a devastating strategy. Russia has maintained a strong aerial bombardment of Ukraine. Today they successfully stuck a training centre in Yavoriv. Killing at least 35. This could likely force Ukraine to further decentralize training, making it more resource intensive (fuel to movie people, more instructors needed, more security, ect.) Economies of scale work for training facilities, it’s why terrorist organizations run a few large camps instead of many smaller but harder to find camps. We’ve also seen Dnipro being targeted as well. This suggests the City is next for Russia to take in the East. However while it’s not as large as Kyiv or Kharkiv, it has had plenty of time to reinforce itself. Russia also has alot of ground to cover before they reach Dnipro. Whether it’s from the south-east or south west. Still the scale of the preparatory bombardment show’s Russia’s General Staff has come to the realisation this war will be hard fought and have adjusted so. It looks like Stand off doctrine is beginning to be used. Stand off doctrine is Russia’s new doctrine that came post Russo-Georgia. The key point of it is heavy bombardment with artillery (both tube and rocket), ballistic and cruise missile, and targeted bombings hitting more precision targets. After the enemy force has been disorganised and heavily battered then you move in with your ground forces. It is a battle of Artillery and bombs. One that Russia can still likely win. Should Ukraine be forced to retaliate in kind then they will likely fall victim to a mounting civilian casualty rate they accuse Russia of. Time will tell is the war stagnates or not.