Good morning it is Day 20 of the war. Back to starting with Russia. It appears Russia is fully transitioning out of a “Rush Kyiv” strategy. On the west side of Kyiv there remains fierce fighting north of Iprin, however Russia has begun advancing south from the M-06 highway. Judging by the continual attacks here but limited gains we’ve either seen lot’s of probing action or Russia is facing a well defended enemy. Either is likely. Further north Russia has secured or is working on securing their flank around Ivankiv. To the east of Kyiv it appears Russia has begun focusing more on regrouping and strengthen their gains. The Ukrainian General staff reported that Russia is “[Carrying] out regrouping of troops” on much of the north-east and eastern front. And it’s only in the south and Luhansk region where Russia is attack forward. Compiled with more and more frequent reports of KIA soldiers in Ukraine (primarily SOF) it would appear Russia is prepared for the war to take much longer than expected. Russia has continued a near unrelenting bombardment of Ukraine hitting the Antonov factory today. This suggests that logistical problems are being fixed, or at the very least for artillery (and missiles). Armour and infantry still seems to have more sporadic supply. And near Kherson Russia seems intent on stretching its foothold on the north bank of the Dnieper. While this front has often moved with a more tactical understanding of supply lines, more recent actions suggest Russia is more keen on securing territory rather than pushing deep into Ukraine. And by Mariupol it seems the reported counter attack to retake the city has been stopped. And the force either pushed out of the pocket or destroyed. Mariupol has been constantly attacked and is doubtlessly running low on supplies. Russian High Command have had their reality check and now the competent officers have made their voices heard. The question is: Can they still win? Ukraine’s activities seem sparse. Heavy fighting north of Iprin have held Russian forces at bay and thwart Russian attempts to cut off Kyiv because a breakthrough here for Ukraine could easily cut off a force swinging around to the Dnieper. However elsewhere Ukraine seems committed to a defensive strategy of defending cities and non-conventional warfare attacking logistics. By denying Russia the logistical infrastructure of air and rail their attacks on road convoys are more devastating. However Russia still maintains a vast equipment reserve from the Soviet Union. And Ukraine’s reserve was rather infamously stolen by arms dealers. (Yes Russia also suffered from this problem, but not as badly as Ukraine.) What ever the Soviet Union may have stored in Ukraine spent 24 years being neglected (Russia’s annexation of Crimea rather infamously caught the UKR military so off guard they had to negotiate for equipment they’d stationed in Crimea to be returned. Including helicopters. Something rather well known for their quick redeployment) And while UKR is being flooded with NATO equipment that will help there’s not a lot of NATO stockpiles of former Soviet equipment. The ANA contract for 7.62 was notoriously hard to fulfil because of the lack of non Chinese makers. This problem will also exist for ammo for Artillery, tank shells, auto cannons, GRAD’s, SAM’s, AA missiles, and what ever else that is former Soviet. Sadly the answer to Ukraine’s supply problem is not Javelins and Stingers. While Ukraine doesn’t need to push Russia to Kursk to win, they can’t rely on inept Russian command. People get smarter or they lose command one way or another. Ukraine can not sit in cities indefinitely. Eventually Russian logistics will stabilise. With Russia regrouping right now we can expect a series of attacks within the week. With Brovary and Boryspil being one target. Nikopol and Mykolaiv in the south are the most likely there. However near Donetsk Russia could envelop the UKR forces between Donetsk and Kramatorsk. Russia has not yet lost.