Good morning everyone. It’s the 21st day of the year. One of the hardest things is that everyone following the war is distinguishing rumour from fact. But just as hard. is trying to look through the fog of war. There are only so many times you can watch convoy number 53 get ambushed by NLAW’s and get some new unique insight from this. Quite honestly we’ve had a rather stationary front for the past few days. So instead of recapping yesterday I’m going to try to explain the situation as best I can. We start with Kyiv, Russia is having limited success crossing the E-40 highway. Rather than another assault on Kyiv their objective has switched to cutting off the city, primarily supply lines that reach Poland, Romania, and Moldova. Meanwhile around Iprin and Hostomel there have been violent artillery duels backed with drones and SOF/recce teams. On the east side of Kyiv Russia’s advance has been repulsed, and Russia has begun reorganising it’s forces. They’re solidifying their front and began setting up forward operating bases. Probing attacks towards Boryspil have attempted to cut Kyiv from the rest of the eastern front. Russia has also sought to have its forces in Chernihiv and Brovary (or rather it’s forces north of there) However even if recce teams have met up, these fronts have not functionally been merged. In Chernihiv, Russian forces are in surrounding villages and fields. However this seems to be where the fog of war is the thickest. As best I can tell Russia’s attempt to fully encircle Chernihiv has partially failed. Mainly in the South/South east Ukraine still has a great deal of mobility outside of the city. However attempts to take the city have been met with failure, denying Russia a major logistical hub on their way to Kyiv. On the main Eastern front the attacks on Kharkiv have been put on hold in favour of rebuilding forces and what appears to be the start of a pincer movement to cut off Kharkiv. For a few days we’ve seen Russia cut off Okhtyrka to open up the route to Poltava and the rear of Kyiv. Meanwhile near Izium Russia has continued assaults in the area. The next major front will likely be here as a push here could swing north to cut off Kharkiv and south and cut off the Donbass front. It is here that Ukraine’s defence will be most critical. Meanwhile Ukraine in this region have begun skirmishing advances out of Kharkiv with the intent to destroy convoys and then pull back to the city. We’ve also had a good understanding of Ukraine’s defensive doctrine, especially outside of cities. Ukraine has begun destroying vital bridges and funnel Russian forces into kill areas. When Russia arrives at the blow bridge Ukraine will call in artillery guided by territorial defence forces and military to disrupt the force. More often than not Russia’s attacks will break apart and they’ll pull back to a previous position. The advantage for Ukraine is there are a lot of bridges and rivers in Ukraine. In the South east Russia seems to have most of it’s attacking troops tied down in pinning Ukrainian forces on the former contact line or attacking Mariupol. This means that any Russian southern pincer to cut off the Ukrainian troops near and on the former contact line and in Severodonetsk and Kramatorsk will be delayed until after Mariupol is taken. However, the Ukrainian Army, Naval infantry and Azov Battalion (I may hate them, but they’ve done an excellent job defending the city). Ukraine in this region seemed to suffer a failure in their reported counter attack to break the siege, however they have stalled the Russian advance towards Zaporizhia. I think this show’s that Ukraine’s army’s strength is heavily based around defence and lacks the offensive capability to effectively kick Russia out of Ukraine at this moment. Ukraine has the armour and force on paper to conduct some counter attacks, and Russian morale and supply problems will make it easier. But Ukraine looks to lack the ability to conduct wide counter attacks. Finally north of Kherson the situation is the second most foggy. While by Mykolaiv we can tell Ukraine maintains strong control of the city and the surrounding country. But elsewhere it seems that it’ll take a few days for battles to trickle out into the wider world. The Battle of Voznesensk comes to mind. Russia has done their best OPSEC, and manoeuvre in this region. They’ve crossed the Dnieper at multiple locations and pushed the most sustained here. It further strengthens the argument that this is where Russia has deployed their best BTG’s. Or at least have their most competent commanders. However Ukraine still threatens Russia’s rear. With Russia lacking control of Kherson’s CBD and reports of Russia fleeing parts of the city. And of course Ukraine has destroyed numerous Russian helicopters in multiple raids on Russian airfields. (10 in the most recent by the looks of it.) And the Russian navy is continuing to threaten a naval invasion of Odessa requiring Ukraine to keep a not insignificant force there to defend the major port. So where does this leave us? Russia has changed tactics. They’ve switched to stand off artillery and bombs to weaken Ukrainian positions, yet due to a lack of smart weapons and poor coordination have failed to do much damage. We’ve seen Russia minimise offensives and focus on strengthening their gains. Primarily their supply lines. But also the ‘front’. The Russian Air Force is once again taking to the skies and conducting CAP. While they’ve proven incapable of doing SEAD operations, their CAP has been somewhat successful, downing Mig-29’s and Su-25s. Losses that Ukraine can ill afford to lose. Russia seems to be positioning its forces to begin new attacks, this time with smaller more manageable goals in mind. They’ve also shown they’re willing to bomb what ever building they chose to. Air strikes they’ve conducted in Syria are now being done in Ukraine. This is the Russia you should fear. A Russia that’s willing to kill thousands of civilians to secure a town. But Ukraine is not in a hopeless situation. For one the Russian military could be well described as a brittle spear tip. The point may well be lethal, but it lacks strength in depth. Ukrainian Air Defence will be getting beefed up in the coming days. With America sending more aid in. As well as ensuring it from other NATO countries. Ukraine still has a strong hold of the countryside and major cities, and Russia is learning you need logistics just as much as tanks to win a war. Ukraine’s defensive doctrine has proven incredibly effective and will likely continue to be so. There are many claims on how long Russia can sustain this war, personally I don’t trust them. We really don’t know what lengths Russia will go to sustain it. We don’t know what Russia’s reserves look like. We don’t know who will be willing to sanctions bust with Russia. China may come out in support of Ukraine in public, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t helping Russia in private. A longer post today, so sorry for making you all read through this. But I hope you found it as informative as my normal ones.