Good morning. It’s the 23rd day of the invasion. Russia has pushed into Mariupol from the east and are currently contesting Azovstal, a steel and iron works along the coast and Kalmius River. Being an industrial area, this will be a prime position to bleed Russian forces with repeated ambushes using the plentiful rail cars, buildings, scrap, and other features of this to the defenders advantage. That is urban warfare. Using the entirety of your environment to your advantage. Russia has made decent progress attacking Mariupol since fully surrounding the city two weeks ago. However the defence of this city is stopping other Russian attacks in the South East. In the north Russia mounted an assault on Chernihiv meeting strong resistance as they try to further their foothold within the suburbs of the city. However with out any other land attacks it’s likely that Russia is still regrouping and strengthening their BTGs. Meanwhile they’ve continued a policy of bombardment and destroying Ukrainian communications. I know I often come across as slightly pro-Russia because I keep saying Russia has potential to inflict heavy losses to Ukraine. And then Russia can’t manifest any attack. I stand by my assessment that Ukraine is in a precarious position. And truthfully I don’t think Russia’s stalled advance should be seen as the war being lost. While training problems and standard equipment is harder to fix, general operational plans can and likely are being changed right now. Russia may be balls deep in Ukraine in a very precarious situation and honestly the worst place to change your operational plans. But that doesn’t mean they can’t do it. We’ve recently seen FSB units working in Russian occupied Ukraine working to stop resistance movements and find for lack of a better term insurgents. A guy with an RPG-7 blowing up supply convoys. They’ve also been used to arrest political figures and protesters. Providing Russia with a much better grip on occupied cities. They may not have expected this much resistance, but they are in the process of dealing with it. Ukraine in contrast had a much more eventful day. The counter attack north of Kherson also saw artillery destroying yet more helicopters. With footage of Russia towing them through Kherson to be fixed somewhere safer. With reports of Ukrainian forces recapturing Snihurivka, Ukraine is moving on Kherson from two positions. This attack has been Ukraine’s most serious attack yet and if they can retake Kherson threatens Russia’s positions between Crimea and the Dnieper. We’ve seen Russia invest much into pacifying and policing operations. They’ve fixed most supply issues here. TO have Ukraine launch attacks throughout the area could be devastating for Russian forces pushing on Zaporizhizhia. In the north Ukraine continues to defend Chernihiv. Similar to Mariupol as long as Chernihiv holds, Russia can’t properly move on Kyiv. So this will likely be the main focus on Russia’s attacks in the north. This defence has been crucial to keeping pressure of Kyiv. Ultimately Ukraine seems more than willing to take this pause in Russia’s attack to dig in and continue setting up defences. While making modest counter attacks. Ohhh and reportedly killing their 5th general. Looking to the future I suspect Russia won’t make any new attacks until after the weekend, particularly around Kharkiv and Kyiv. Russia’s response to the Ukrainian counter attack will also be something to look out for. With a possible flanking of Ukraine’s forces with Russian units originally pushing towards Kryvyi Rih being in a position to instead swing west. Meanwhile Ukraine will look to secure the airbases around Kherson before capturing the bridges over the Dnieper. The next target for Ukraine is Nova Kakhovka, although it’s uncertain if Ukraine will have to momentum to retake Russia’s other crossing over the Dnieper. As Russia admits more casualties, mainly officers and senior NCO’s will this ‘brain drain’ help of hinder Russia? *These are the officers who planned the invasion. Perhaps those that take their place will be more competent.