It’s Day 29. The start of the 2nd month of the war. The Russo-Ukrainian war has been raging now for much longer than the Kremlin expected. And longer than most analysts expected. I’d like to apologies for missing the last few days of updates. I needed a small break to focus on school, and a few days off trying to find something new in “Russian convoy ambushed” “Russia attacks small town” “Russia bombs city”. Of course, it’s my luck that the half week I took off ended up being rather eventful.

Russia continued its assault on Mariupol throughout the week. Securing the parts of the eastern half and moving into suburbs everywhere else. The city has been arguably the most destroyed of the war. Buildings collapsed, on fire, ruble dots the landscape. As more and more civilians attempt to flee the city it seems to have only gotten worse. AP said that their journalists were the last to leave the city. Russia has committed most of its army units in the region to the capture of Mariupol. However, the defenders have proven they will not cede a meter. Further north near Izyum after a week of heavy fighting Russia today announced control over the town. How long they maintain control in uncertain. And indeed, how strong their grasp is not known. They also approach Ballakila, to the south of Kharkiv. Obviously intent of cutting lines of supply and encircling the city. However, the speed at which they’re going has made it near impossible to effectively outmanoeuvred Ukrainian defence. Likely more restricted to the roads because of the heavier armoured vehicles more commonly used, whereas Ukraine has leaned more heavily into light infantry ambushes and counterattacks. Russia though has seen success fortifying it’s fronts notably north of Kharkiv and east of Kyiv. And west of the Dnieper Russia has pushed north along the river and widened the front south of Kryvyi Rih. This pressure is likely what lead to the halting of Ukraine’s counterattack towards Kharkiv.

Ukraine meanwhile has seen a great deal of success in their counter attacks. Bringing up reserves from Lviv, Ukraine was able to punch into the weaker west flank of Russia’s northern army. They now sit outside of Ivankiv, and the bridge across the Teteriv river. This is probably Russia’s most fortified rear position in Ukraine, and for good reason. Ukrainian SOF and militia infamously turned a stretch of highway hear into NLAW alley a few weeks ago ambushing and destroying a large amount of supply vehicles. It is also Russia’s single largest bottle neck. To the South Ukraine has taken back Irpin and are fighting into Bucha and Hostomel. Meanwhile they’ve attacked Russian positions on the E-40 highway and Makariv. With Rasputitsa (mud season) in effect and the flooded plains north of Hostomel, Russian movement is going to be limited. Making any retreat out of the pocket difficult. That of course assumes Russian command will allow it. And east of Kyiv Ukrainian forces have been reported to push north to Oster and Semypolky. Threatening the Russian supply lines from Belarus to Brovary.

Russia today got a taste of their own medicine, when a propaganda video showing Russian landing boats unloading vehicles in Berdiansk was used by Ukraine to target said ship. It was hit and heavily damaged today with the fire and smoke dominating the skyline of the post. Many people have noted the biggest surprise of the war is Russia’s inability to gain air superiority, let alone supremacy. However Russian ships repeatedly being hit and destroyed is even worse. Of course, other the point of surprise has been Russia’s ‘brain drain’ through dead high-level officers. While in the air, reports of Su-57s flying over Ukraine have appeared. The validity is as yet unknown, however if it is true that shows quite a bit of desperation from Russia. Resorting to an aircraft that has 14 total produced (10 prototypes, 4 serial) as of 2021. The war is not over by any means yet. Don’t expect a swift end to it either.