Good morning. It’s day 30 of the 15-day special military operation.

Russia continues its assault on Mariupol pushing into the city centre from the west, threatening to cut the defence in two. This is often a very effective way to win a city faster. They’ve also begun a counterattack by Ivankiv to the west, that so far has been unsuccessful. Maintaining control over the town and its bridges is crucial for Russia’s west pincer on Kyiv. And south of Horlivka Russia announced small gains across the lines. However most of Russia’s offensive movements today were once again, air strikes and artillery. Striking Ukrainian positions near Dnipro. As well as less accurate strikes near Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sievierodonetsk, and Kramatorsk among the civilian areas most hit.

Ukraine’s successes continued today. With notable gains reported east of Kyiv. While not yet confirmed it appears Ukraine has pushed northeast of Kyiv towards Chernihiv and broken through Russian lines reopening supply lines between the two cities. Counter attacks around Brovary also pushed Russian positions back well over the E-95. And with a new attack today securing the small village of Lukianivka east of Brovary hinting at a Ukrainian thrust from the south pushing north to connect with Ukrainian troops near Chernihiv. If true, this would encircle Russia’s east pincer on Kyiv. However it is not known the force used to retake this village, and could likely be a small force that isn’t able to capitalize on this.

So where does this leave us? Russia is being threatened on two fronts and is lacking progress elsewhere. We have recently seen more Russian units moving past Kherson, so a counterattack by Russian forces is likely, however Ukraine will by now have had ample time to dig in between Mykolaiv and Kherson and set successive defensive lines. In the southeast Russia seems unable to move until Mariupol is taken. And while Russia is making progress, more progress than they’ve had in a city since capturing Kherson, it is not fast enough. As every day Russia can’t attack towards Zaporizkzhia or in a manner to cut off Ukrainian troops on the former contact line; Ukraine can use to increase defenses. Ukraine meanwhile seems confident in their counterattacks to now begin holding their territory and looking to encircle Russian units. Previously they would counterattack, then slowly pull back in an organized fighting retreat (look at Kharkiv for a good example). It’s likely Ukraine will look to eliminate the Russian Saliant northwest of Kyiv. And then move those troops to other locations and counterattack there. They still lack large offensive capabilities so even the double counterattack on both sides of Kyiv is surprising.

Much of the fighting has fallen into what can best be described as Small War. As an expert for the Napoleonic warfare Rory Muir says, “the great majority of armed clashes were partial combats between detached forces, advance and rear guards and the like, rather than pitched battles between the main bodies of opposing armies.” In context for the Russo-Ukrainian war this is best observed in the aftermath of a Ukrainian ambush on Russian supply convoys (which have been widely shared) Or Russian recon groups taking smaller villages (much less widely shared). We may not think much about a village, but that village might have a couple hundred gallons (or litres) of diesel. It has building Russian troops can sleep in and set up a forward command position. Perhaps the village had an important bridge that Russia can use to cross a river. So, with this it is worth noting that not every retaken village means a new counterattack. This is an easy trap to fall into (I myself am guilty of it). As we see UKR Forces take xyv village, and think the counterattack has begun. While in reality it could be some company whose skirmish went better than expected. These battles though are still crucial. As it bleeds troops and supply. And winning them is paramount to winning the large war.