A lot has changed in the 23 day’s I’ve been gone, and over the coming days I’ll be writing about that. But for right now let me quickly give you the rundown.

So Ukrainian counter attacks showed the Russian reconsolidation wasn’t doing a great job as they made multiple successive pushes. It was at this point Russia announced they were transitioning to phase B. Over a few days Russia left Northern Ukraine. The entire assault on Kyiv was abandoned as well as the positions north of Kharkiv. This coincided with Ukraine’s most successful counterattack which liberated Sumy and likely forced Russia’s withdraw from the northeast. Now as Russian forces withdrew from Ukraine, they left destroyed towns, looting worse than Iraqis when Baghdad fell, and a string of war crimes currently under investigation by the ICC. It’s my understanding Ukraine now has a washing machine shortage. Phase B saw a greater emphasis on the southern front. Where early operational success had secured the land bridge and a foothold over the Dnieper River for Russia. With only Mariupol holding out it was Russia’s one relative success story. However, Ukraine has entrenched themselves. And with no active threat in the north, they have been able to use interior lines to rapidly redeploy to the South faster than Russia. While Russia has had some success around Izium looking to pocket Ukrainian forces in Sieverdonetsk, they’ve been stopped or pushed everywhere else. North of Kharkiv Russia has been pushed progressively closer to the boarder, just barley holding a corridor on the M-20 highway. And near Kherson Ukraine have also managed small counterattacks. Pushing ever closer to Kherson, notably pushing towards Stanislav to flank the city. They’ve also begun a push towards Nova Khakhova from Kryvyi Ruh. However reinforced positions have seen Ukrainian attacks face similar problems as Russian attacks have. Not every Russian soldier is some Yakutsk peasant. Enough of these Russian soldiers fought in Syria or have been trained enough to dig in and defend.  

In naval news Ukrainian Neptune ASM batteries came online with a bang, quite literally seen as they sunk the Russian Flagship cruiser of the Black Sea Moskva. (Well it might have also been an onboard fire started accidentally for some inexplicable reason.) What we do know with decent certainty is roughly 400 sailors lost their lives onboard. Not since the Falklands war has such tonnage been sunk or lives lost, with the ARA Belgrano sinking. And well, there are a few parallels. Namely both sinkings heavily crippled the respective navies and forced said nation to cease naval operations in the region. (Although Russia may resume operations) However where the Argentines can be forgiven for being sunk by nuclear submarine, the Moskva sinking is less forgiving. Arguably Russia’s best air defense cruiser the Moskva boasted a triple tier-ed air defense system (similar to US Navy ships) with S-300F Long range SAM’s, OSA-MA short range SAM’s and AK-630 CWIS guns. Interestingly in the 2008 Russo-Georgia war it was hit by a Georgian missile though it survived that encounter. With it now resting below the waves, Russia’s naval capabilities are severely hindered. Made worse by the operational Neptune Batteries, Russia’s most valuable feint, a naval landing on Odessa, has been made almost impossible. Due to this we will likely see the redeployment of the Odessa garrison as it is no longer needed in as great force. This garrison would provide Ukrainian forces near Kherson with fresh troops and more armour both critical for an attack.

Finally, the city of the month, Mariupol. Composing roughly 64 square miles (166 sq km) and with a 2017 population of 446,103 this small coastal city should have been one of the easiest cities for Russia to capture, even if its eastern side had become a maze of defenses and the city itself was home to multiple Army Garrisons. Truthfully for an Urban battle Russia has done well here. Sorta. Comparisons to the 2^nd battle of Fallujah (which is a smaller city in both population and size) show Russia has done well in regard to speed. However, casualty numbers are noticeably different. Coalition forces lost 107 men in Fallujah. And while exact Russian losses are unknown it can be safe to assume Russia has lost more. Equipment losses for Russia in Mariupol are also higher than in Fallujah. Another comparison the Battle of Grozny (1999) ended with a reported 368 dead Russians but after only 43 days. Urban fighting is notoriously difficult and to say Russia is being made a fool is rather unfair. They’ve, since the start of phase B, made great progress splitting the city in two locations and clearing larger swathes of the city. However Ukrainian Marines almost out of Ammunition were successful in breaking through Russian lines and Reaching Azov battalion forces. Controversies aside I would say Russia has done ok. Simply ok. In fact, playing devil’s advocate, I would say with the average quality of troop they’ve done better than expected. I will talk more in depth about the Siege of Mariupol in a separate piece. But the main take way from Mariupol is Ukraine are defending to the last bullet, to the last man, on empty stomachs if need be. These are not defenders who are simply doing it while it’s easy. And for Russia, well they may not be conducting the textbook example of urban warfare, and this bodes poorly for any fighting for Kyiv, they could be doing a lot worse, in fact they seem to be doing better here than out in a village. The war is fast approaching two months old, and it’s tough to say how much longer it may last. Victory Day is May 9^th and it had been pegged for the last possible day of fighting. However recent Russian rhetoric from state news has seen a shift from military operation to war. War that may require the mobilization of Russia to “fight the infrastructure of NATO” (RT News) This may mean that Putin will use Victory Day to further propagandize the war in Ukraine drawing contrasts to 1941 USSR. And to the Great Patriotic War. While Russia can no longer make modern tanks due to sanctions, a proper declaration of war could see Russia leaning more heavily on their allies in the CSTO as well as China, India, Eretria, Cuba, amongst others. China has so far taken a very passive stance on the war. But should Russia decide to properly declare, China may be willing to sanction bust to some extent. India has also been rather quiet so far, but as the largest purchaser of Russian equipment, they would be well suited to aid Russia, or perhaps cut ties. For Ukraine the flood of NATO/Western-Bloc equipment has been massive for strengthening their fighting forces. Now with more offensive weapons like US 155mm SPG’s, Polish and Czech T-72 M1 tanks, M113’s, and Mi-8’s Ukrainian Attacks can likely be more sustained. Be it into Russia or to retake occupied land. On the first day of the war “Rimmy DownUnder” made a great comment that if Ukraine could survive a few weeks until foreign aid could arrive and a front stabilized, they would be able to defend for months. This is probably the most correct statement made that first day I can remember. Ukraine did just that, they defended and held through a tough 5 days of near constant assault. Now they are in a rapidly more advantageous position over Russia (at least locally). They have secured abandoned Russian positions and are clearing them for mines, traps, and straggling soldiers, they’ve also been redeploying units to the south and likely been given soldiers rest time. Meanwhile it is Ukrainian Artillery that is reigning supreme and Ukraine who are making the airstrikes. The tide has most definitely shifted, now we shall see what Ukraine will do.